How do I judge how much a firewood business slows down in a mild winter?

Collect monthly sales data across as many winters as the seller has, and ask the seller to point out which ones were mild. Compare order counts, load sizes and the timing of orders. A mild winter may reduce the number of orders, or just push them later into the season. Ask how customers responded, since some wait for cold snaps to place orders while others buy early regardless of the forecast.

Look at what happened to stock afterward. Unsold wood is not lost, since it can dry and sell later, but it ties up money and space. Ask how the seller handled the leftover wood and whether they cut less the following year.

Find out whether the business has income outside winter, such as camping, summer events, kindling, bundled sales or delivery work for others. These soften the swings. Then test your own finances. Fixed costs such as loan payments, wages and yard rent continue in a slow year. Ask your accountant to run a mild-winter case and see whether you could carry the business through back-to-back slow seasons. Do this before you commit to any terms. Think about what you would change in your own buying and cutting plan if you faced back-to-back soft winters.

Key takeaways

• Compare monthly sales for mild and cold winters side by side.
• See how unsold stock was handled after a slow season.
• Run your own mild-winter case before agreeing to terms.