How do I judge a supply yard’s rain-dependent sales swings?

Request sales by week or day for several years, not just annual totals, and mark the wet spells. Look at what happens after: do contractors return and buy the delayed material, or do those sales vanish? A sharp dip followed by a catch-up is a timing issue. A dip with no recovery is lost income. Ask the seller to talk through the wettest stretches they can remember and what happened to staff hours and cash on hand. Their account can add detail that the reports do not show.

Ask which products suffer most. Bulk material for paving and groundwork may stall when sites are too wet, while mulch and topsoil may move at other times. Ask which customers drive each product, and whether they are contractors on tight schedules or homeowners who can wait.

Check how costs behave when sales drop. Rent, loan payments and salaried wages continue regardless, so see whether the yard builds enough in good weeks to carry the bad ones. The financial statements and bank records should show this. Be careful with forecasts that assume every season will be average. Run a poor-season case with your accountant and ask whether you could carry the business through it. Ask whether any customers moved to a competitor during those wet spells and came back later.

Key takeaways

• Review weekly sales across several seasons, not annual totals.
• Check whether delayed purchases come back after wet spells.
• Test your plan against a poor season before committing.